Could it be you?

"This is who they are: they are the people who won this election. They were the heart and soul and backbone of Barack Obama's victory." - Joe Klein, Time magazine

More people voted for Barack Obama than any other person in the history of the United States - over 62 million, breaking Bush's record in 2004. The under-reported story of this election (though picked up by Time's Joe Klein)is the ground force Obama had - 700 ofiices around the country, exploiting the work Howard Dean began on the internet in '04, and in Dean's 50-State strategy.

These are the people that won the election, and they now want to continue that dialogue. This is Obama's unique position; he can and will pivot his mandate on the animated, active electorate of millions who see this as more than an opportunity to vote, but, finally, a way to come together, to organize, knowing the man in the White House is there because of them, and is one of them.

Perhaps the media are not picking up on this in the way they should is because they feel their power edging away. This is street-level stuff, neighbours talking, strangers getting to know each other - this election was decided becuase people used the online tools of MyBO to get offline, to stage events in unprecedented numbers, to make sure the vote was cast, but that the vote, the victory a week ago, was the first step.

"America, our moment is now"

The Obama campaign has a new web video to fire up the base and get the folks to the polls [http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=2J42Mz8-0eg&eurl=http://www.jedreport.com/]

And this 30 minute campaign show, which ran on on 7 channels, national channels nad special interest channels, like a Latino channel. 30 million people saw it. [http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GtREqAmLsoA&feature=channel] After 27 minutes, the show went live, to join Obama and Biden in a stadium-filled ralley in Florida. [http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=GZPIdyONWyw&feature=related] He told the entire country to go to his website and find out how to help get out the vote. This 30 minute ad is designed to shift the undecideds (and low info voters) into his camp.

Add another 3 million watching Obama on the Daily Show Wednesday evening, and a storm of media coverage over the midnight rally Obama held with Bill Clinton. A good day, then, for the Obamas campaign. And I expect it doesn't end here.

Some events that could be round the corner, to seal the deal?

A return to Springfield, Illinois late monday night, for a rally at the place he began it, in February last year? [http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=gdJ7Ad15WCA] He went back there in August, after choosing Biden, so maybe he'll visit a series of swing states - Pennslvania, Virginia, Nevada, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio - there are many to choose from.

I sense that the media-busting surprises are not over. Maybe Obama'll convince Powell to go on the stump, maybe he'll bring Bill and Hillary, Biden his wife Jill, and Michelle Obama and their two kids all together. I don't know, but I am sure there will be something.

And they will have to keep the momentum going. The Page reports [http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/31/davis-were-pretty-jazzed-up/] that McCain's "Mike DuHaime says the campaign has made 5.3 million phone calls and doorknocks in the past week, including 1.3 million Thursday alone. Compares with 1.9 million for the same week in 2004.
These big-scale efforts have never been seen before."

That is a lot of people, so this is by no means over.

It all comes down to getting the folks to the polls, and those folks knowing that with their vote they can bring their man to power.

"There is no ground game!"

This election comes down to the ground game - which campaign will be the best at turning out voters. Analysing the McCain campaign, here is the news, 1 minute, 25 seconds into this clip [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27399977#27295062] Joe Scarborough, that smooth shmuck presenter (and Republican on the heavily Democrat-leaning MSNBC) sums it up "There is no ground game."

With 8 days to go, I am surprised that the national polls are still around +7 for Obama [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/]. They will tighten - and the polls that matter, in the swing states, will tighten too .

Looking at the polls as they stand it is difficult to see how McCain can win, but of course he can, and although he doesn't have the narrative, the money or the ground game supplied by enthusiastic supporters that Obama enjoys, he has enough Republican voters to make this election close, and he can still queeze though and win.

8 days out, all the evidence shows that Obama has laid the groundwork for a huge victory, a landslide on a par with Clinton in '92. He created the movement that got him through the primaries by enthusing anti-war Democrats, urban liberals, African Americans and (overwhelmingly and in historic numbers) those under 25 years old - first time voters and those who have become adults during the Bush years. That coalition proved more robust than Hillary's coalition, and it got out the vote in spectacular fashion time and again during the primaries.

But it may not be enough to beat the Republicans' millions of determined volunteers, who are not particuarly fired up by McCain, but they will do anything to make sure Obama does not get in. The ground game is essential for Obama, but less so for McCain, as he and Palin can rely on the votes of the Republicans.

Obama is banking on an unproven coalition. McCain can be certain that his voters will come out. The pressure is on Obama's voluteers - how good will they be at getting out the vote? All those calls, knocks on doors, adverts and campaign offices mean nothing if they don't have the folks coming to the polls.

One element to emerge in the last few days - and this will build as the election comes down to the final few days - is the spin surrounding Obama's massive crowds - 100,00+ twice, first on Thursday in St Louis [http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/humongous-crowd.html] and again yesterday in Denver [http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/26/obama-crowd-100-000-strong-in-denver/2] These are huge rallies, the biggest he has seen in the 20 months he has been campaigning. It points to Obama closing strong.

So at first glance this seems only positive from Obama's point of view. It does however feed into a narrative that Obama has this election in the bag, and that may dissuade some voters from actually voting - 'he's won it already, so it doesn't matter I don't queue up to vote.' Reports and commentary on the massive crowds, added to the basic need for both campaigns to plan the transition, tend towards Obama thinking the presidency is 'innevitable'. Palin has been calling the election a 'coronation' over the weekend, feeding the idea that Obama is planning his presidency without the decent first step of waiting for the voters to decide the outcome. This won't have a huge efect on the actual votes cast, but McCain can and will exploit this to his advantage.

I expect McCain to win a few states on Nov 4th that are +Obama right now. They are investing healivy in Pennsylvania and Florida, and he has a long-standing positive relationship with New Hampshire.

Still, 8 days out, Obama should win this comfortably, and as results come in at 6pm Eastern, 11pm GMT, watch out for Indiana. If Obama carries Indiana, we are in for a short night and a big Obama victory. Since 1940 the Democrats have won Indiana only once, in the LBJ landslide of '64. If McCain wins, we will be in for a longer night and a closer result, and we will then probably have to wait for Nevada and New Mexico on the West Coast until we know for sure.

Indiana is not a battleground state, it is not a swing state, it was carried by Bush in 2004 60% - 39%. Obama's insistence that there are no red states or blue states have made even Indiana competetive. It is an astonishing place to be 8 days out, and the path of predictability, if this story unfurls as it has, will see Obama comfortably in the White House.

But politics is never predictable, and the only thing that matters is getting out the votes.