Prediction: 274 Obama -264 McCain

Taking a very conservative approach to guessing the unknowable, and regardless of the pundits and the national polls, I think tonight will be very close.

274-264 Obama.

Obama will keep hold of Kerry's map. He will take Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado (all Bush in 2004). He'll hang on to Pennslvania, but I think that state will be very, very close.

McCain will take Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina , Missouri and the outside bets of Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota and his own state Arizona.

A few reasons for this:

1. like usual, Al Giordana [http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/field-projects-obama-307-electoral-votes-mccain-231] says it best, big change happens in small doses. remember Obama's closing warning - power does not concede easily. There are enough people in the US who will stand in the rain all day to make sure Obama does not get into the White House.

2. I am going by the latest poll averages from http://www.realclearpolitics.com It shows Obama up by =4 or more in Pennslvania, Virginia, Nevada and Colorado.

I am being very conservative here. Al Giordano has it at 307-231 Obama, Real Clear Politiocs, Karl Rove and Michael Tomasky over at The Guardian [http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/uselections2008] has it at 338-200 Obama. They know how to predict these things, not me - but I sense we are in for a shock tonight - Obama will scrape through, but there's a reason why the Republicans have won all but 3 of the last 10 presidential elections: they come out to vote. Obama is riding a wave of enthusiasm, but his coalition is untested against the republican GOTV machine.

It'll be a long night, but in the end Barack Obama will be President-elect.

"Whack job"

The McCain campain is falling to pieces, and although this desrves and will get more attention, here is a little quote to set up some scrutiny of how so much went wrong so quickly for McCain:

"In convo with Playbook, [http://www.politico.com/playbook/] a top McCain adviser one-ups the priceless “diva” description, calling her “a whack job.”

How he did it: Part Two

Joe's 13 days too late

Big news: Joe the Plumber is going to stump for McCain! [http://thepage.time.com/2008/10/28/joe-the-plumber-to-stump-for-mccain/]

Remember Joe? [http://44thpotus.blogspot.com/2008/10/how-he-did-it-part-one.html]

If McCain or his campaign knew anything about politics, this would have been arranged before the final debate 13 days ago, announced during the debate and begun the morning after the debate. Instead of half-heartedly going for it, if this was to be McCain's line of attack, he should have thrown everything at it.

Forget for a moment that it is a logically unsound attack, as Joe is not even a registered plumber (therefore taking jobs from guys who bother to train and register) and Joe would in fact get a tax CUT by Obama! But if you forget about that, and put yourselves in McCain's position, you can either sign Joe up and make him the everyman American, and make yourself the saviour of the Average Joe, or you don't mention it at all.

McCain did the worst possible thing by embracing Joe in his speeches, but not putting his campaign behind getting Joe on the bus straight away.

To borrow from Joe Biden, who always passes on advice from his parents, my father used to say - still does - 'Do a job right or don't do it at all.'

There may be an outside possibility that Joe the Plumber will turn around the masses and save McCain's floundering campaign, but I wouldn't bet on it.

"There is no ground game!"

This election comes down to the ground game - which campaign will be the best at turning out voters. Analysing the McCain campaign, here is the news, 1 minute, 25 seconds into this clip [http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/21134540/vp/27399977#27295062] Joe Scarborough, that smooth shmuck presenter (and Republican on the heavily Democrat-leaning MSNBC) sums it up "There is no ground game."

With 8 days to go, I am surprised that the national polls are still around +7 for Obama [http://www.realclearpolitics.com/]. They will tighten - and the polls that matter, in the swing states, will tighten too .

Looking at the polls as they stand it is difficult to see how McCain can win, but of course he can, and although he doesn't have the narrative, the money or the ground game supplied by enthusiastic supporters that Obama enjoys, he has enough Republican voters to make this election close, and he can still queeze though and win.

8 days out, all the evidence shows that Obama has laid the groundwork for a huge victory, a landslide on a par with Clinton in '92. He created the movement that got him through the primaries by enthusing anti-war Democrats, urban liberals, African Americans and (overwhelmingly and in historic numbers) those under 25 years old - first time voters and those who have become adults during the Bush years. That coalition proved more robust than Hillary's coalition, and it got out the vote in spectacular fashion time and again during the primaries.

But it may not be enough to beat the Republicans' millions of determined volunteers, who are not particuarly fired up by McCain, but they will do anything to make sure Obama does not get in. The ground game is essential for Obama, but less so for McCain, as he and Palin can rely on the votes of the Republicans.

Obama is banking on an unproven coalition. McCain can be certain that his voters will come out. The pressure is on Obama's voluteers - how good will they be at getting out the vote? All those calls, knocks on doors, adverts and campaign offices mean nothing if they don't have the folks coming to the polls.

One element to emerge in the last few days - and this will build as the election comes down to the final few days - is the spin surrounding Obama's massive crowds - 100,00+ twice, first on Thursday in St Louis [http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2008/10/humongous-crowd.html] and again yesterday in Denver [http://news.aol.com/political-machine/2008/10/26/obama-crowd-100-000-strong-in-denver/2] These are huge rallies, the biggest he has seen in the 20 months he has been campaigning. It points to Obama closing strong.

So at first glance this seems only positive from Obama's point of view. It does however feed into a narrative that Obama has this election in the bag, and that may dissuade some voters from actually voting - 'he's won it already, so it doesn't matter I don't queue up to vote.' Reports and commentary on the massive crowds, added to the basic need for both campaigns to plan the transition, tend towards Obama thinking the presidency is 'innevitable'. Palin has been calling the election a 'coronation' over the weekend, feeding the idea that Obama is planning his presidency without the decent first step of waiting for the voters to decide the outcome. This won't have a huge efect on the actual votes cast, but McCain can and will exploit this to his advantage.

I expect McCain to win a few states on Nov 4th that are +Obama right now. They are investing healivy in Pennsylvania and Florida, and he has a long-standing positive relationship with New Hampshire.

Still, 8 days out, Obama should win this comfortably, and as results come in at 6pm Eastern, 11pm GMT, watch out for Indiana. If Obama carries Indiana, we are in for a short night and a big Obama victory. Since 1940 the Democrats have won Indiana only once, in the LBJ landslide of '64. If McCain wins, we will be in for a longer night and a closer result, and we will then probably have to wait for Nevada and New Mexico on the West Coast until we know for sure.

Indiana is not a battleground state, it is not a swing state, it was carried by Bush in 2004 60% - 39%. Obama's insistence that there are no red states or blue states have made even Indiana competetive. It is an astonishing place to be 8 days out, and the path of predictability, if this story unfurls as it has, will see Obama comfortably in the White House.

But politics is never predictable, and the only thing that matters is getting out the votes.

Why Powell Decided

Colin Powell talked yesterday on Meet The Press [http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=Mo_WZi0eV1U] about one of the ugliest sides to this ugly election - the continual unabashed discrimination against Muslims and Arab-Americans. That idiot woman who said "I don't trust Obama. I have read about him and he's an Arab" the other week was vocalizing the inner thoughts of a mass of people who have read emails falsely claiming Obama is Muslim. Its a confusion that McCain is happy to go along with, and didn't for instance say at that gathering "He's a Christian."

Powell, who said he has watched and waited and decided on the basis of who performed best over a number of criteria, also spoke of the life and death of a man who no doubt would have been jeered at and threatned by the myopic knucklers that turn up to McCain and Palin's rallies.

He was speaking about Karim Rashad Sultan Kahn, a man who lived his life in a way that would confuse the knucklers;

Powell: "I feel strongly about this particular point because of a picture I saw in a magazine. It was a photo essay about troops who were serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. And one picture at the tail end of this photo essay was of a mother in Arlington Cemetery. And she had her head on the headstone of her son's grave. And as the picture focused in, you could see the writing on the headstone. And it gave his awards - Purple Heart, Bronze Star; showed that he died in Iraq; gave his date of birth, date of death. He was twenty years old. And then at the very top of the headstone, it didn't have a Christian cross. It didn't have a Star of David. It had a crescent and a star of the Islamic faith. And his name was Karim Rashad Sultan Kahn. And he was an American. He was born in New Jersey, he was fourteen years old at the time of 9/11 and he waited until he could go serve his country and he gave his life."

Al Giordano has the entire trascript over at The Field [http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/]

Colin Powel (pron. Co-w-lin Po-wl)

Today the big news is Colin Powell's endorsement of Obama on Meet the Press. His endorsement matters, as he is still much resopected in the US, and he of courase was high up in the first Bush Administration.

Its worth noting that Colin Powell lost a great deal of respect internationally on Feb 5th 2003, during his fantasy-fuelled presentation to the UN, trying to convince the international community of WMD in Saddam Hussein's Iraq. Here he is in the photo above with a model vial of anthrax. Here is a link to video of Powell at the UN. [http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=3ZKoSDazgf4&feature=related]

Why it matters is that Powell will garner positive media attention for Obama in the next 2-3 datys , eating into McCain's window to shake things up.