Taking a very conservative approach to guessing the unknowable, and regardless of the pundits and the national polls, I think tonight will be very close.
274-264 Obama.
Obama will keep hold of Kerry's map. He will take Virginia, Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado (all Bush in 2004). He'll hang on to Pennslvania, but I think that state will be very, very close.
McCain will take Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina , Missouri and the outside bets of Georgia, North Dakota, South Dakota and his own state Arizona.
A few reasons for this:
1. like usual, Al Giordana [http://narcosphere.narconews.com/thefield/field-projects-obama-307-electoral-votes-mccain-231] says it best, big change happens in small doses. remember Obama's closing warning - power does not concede easily. There are enough people in the US who will stand in the rain all day to make sure Obama does not get into the White House.
2. I am going by the latest poll averages from http://www.realclearpolitics.com It shows Obama up by =4 or more in Pennslvania, Virginia, Nevada and Colorado.
I am being very conservative here. Al Giordano has it at 307-231 Obama, Real Clear Politiocs, Karl Rove and Michael Tomasky over at The Guardian [http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/uselections2008] has it at 338-200 Obama. They know how to predict these things, not me - but I sense we are in for a shock tonight - Obama will scrape through, but there's a reason why the Republicans have won all but 3 of the last 10 presidential elections: they come out to vote. Obama is riding a wave of enthusiasm, but his coalition is untested against the republican GOTV machine.
It'll be a long night, but in the end Barack Obama will be President-elect.
Tuesday 4 November 2008
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